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8 March 2024,06:47
Weekly Outlook
8 March 2024, 06:47
下周焦点: 3月11日当周(GMT+8)
在一月份，通货膨胀的年度率下降得不如预期，从十二月的3.4%下降到3.1%。许多经济学家和美联储官员已经警告说，最终将通货膨胀带回2%的目标将是一项挑战。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔最近暗示了降息的可能性，但他也强调在抗击通货膨胀方面的进展是不确定的。即将发布的数据将为通货膨胀情况提供额外的洞察。
在去年十二月，英国正式进入经济衰退，2023年最后一个季度国内生产总值下降了0.3%，降至-0.1%。这些统计数据证实了英国长期经济停滞的持续趋势。尽管如此，最近公布的2024年预算报告有望为经济注入新活力，标志着经济从衰退中反弹。投资者迫切期待数据发布以获取额外的确认，特别是由于英国财政大臣杰里米·亨特宣布商业责任办公室(OBR)上调了2024年国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测。
截至3月2日那周，美国申请失业救济金的新申请人数与上周持平，因劳动力市场继续逐渐缓解，这可能使美联储有足够的空间在今年降息前等待。尽管水平仍然保持历史低位，但之前的结果表明，美国劳动力市场正在经历一些疲软，这一趋势被归因于美联储长时间实施的限制性货币政策。随后数据的上升将会证实这一趋势。
美国零售销售在一月份下滑至-0.8%，与前一个月的0.4%相比，随着美国消费者做出明智的决定，削减了他们的支出。这是一个强烈的迹象，表明消费者最终感受到了通货膨胀和较高利率的紧缩压力。然而，美国经济接近正常水平，预计消费支出将会反弹。
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