Published: 22 March 2024,09:25
Weekly Outlook
下周焦点: 3月25日当周(GMT+8)
在一月份，美国耐用品订单下降了6.1%，预期为-4.5%，创下了近四年来最大的降幅，而设备投资似乎有所放缓，表明了年初经济增长势头的减弱。然而，最近经济工业部门出现了复苏迹象，而且今年晚些时候降低利率的可能性可能会促使需求增加，因为联邦储备委员会最近暗示将进一步降息。因此，订单可能会反弹并显示出改善。
英国国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度出现了-0.3%的收缩，比预期的-0.1%的下降情况更糟。这一下滑被归因于所有主要行业的下降，导致英国进入技术性衰退。然而，最近的发展表明，英国有望在几个月内从轻微的衰退中恢复过来，官方数据显示，1月份经济增长了0.2%。预计下周公布的数据将有更好的结果。美联储偏爱的指标——除食品和能源外的PCE物价指数月率——在一月份上涨了0.4%，符合经济学家的预测。
在初步发布的数据中，全球最大经济体的国内生产总值（GDP）增长率在2023年第四季度被调整为3.2%，略低于上个月发布的初步估计值3.3%，主要是由于对企业投资的下调修正。尽管有关消费者支出疲软的预测是由于减少的疫情储蓄和高借贷成本，但消费仍然出人意料地表现强劲。市场预计未来几个季度增长将放缓，但仍将保持正增长。
美国零售销售在一月份下滑至-0.8%，与前一个月的0.4%相比，随着美国消费者做出明智的决定，削减了他们的支出。这是一个强烈的迹象，表明消费者最终感受到了通货膨胀和较高利率的紧缩压力。然而，美国经济接近正常水平，预计消费支出将会反弹。
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