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23 March 2021,02:56
市场前瞻
23 March 2021, 02:56
随着美国国债收益率下滑，纳斯达克100指数攀升至2%，为股市提供了利好消息。市场也聚焦于美联储的SLR决定。美联储将在3月底终止对银行SLR要求的临时修改。最糟糕的情况是，一些银行不得不发行优先股，为增加存款留出空间，这可能会导致大规模的抛售。
在土耳其总统埃尔多安（Erdogan）突然解雇央行行长之后，土耳其里拉兑美元暴跌15%，创下近三年来最大的单日跌幅。恩加·阿格巴尔（Ngai Agbal）于去年11月被任命为该国第三任央行行长，他在不到两年的时间里被免职，原因是其主张降低费率。阿格巴尔的退出导致央行加息200个基点。里拉的自由落体式下跌加剧了土耳其的通胀问题，也有加剧货币错配的风险。此外，外部借贷成本的上升使土耳其借款人更难展期外债。
随着失业率下降，澳元攀升至近两周以来的最高水平。在好于预期的失业报告发布后，澳元今天上涨0.4%，这是杠杆基金一天内第二次买入澳元。失业数据从预期的6.3%降至5.8%，而全职就业增加了891,000个就业岗位。
由于担心美国国债收益率可能进一步上升，尽管收益率今天下降了近1.7%，黄金转为负值。在增长和通胀前景乐观的背景下，投资者密切关注近期债券拍卖的沉重打击。因此，黄金的潜在收益可能不足以刺激投资者结束押注。
欧元兑美元反转方向，转为正，当日上涨约0.28%，至1.1935。今日美国国债收益率走低继续推动美元表现。另一方面，欧洲央行指出，它准备调整所有工具，以确保通胀以持续的方式波动。
欧元兑美元（EURUSD；日线图）
由于美国国债收益率今日下跌，欧元兑美元已升至1.19水平以上，但仍被困在日线图中的下降通道里。该货币对限制了近期的看涨潜力，因为它需要突破1.2124左右，给多头一个机会。通过升至1.2124上方，即年度上升趋势和短期下降趋势交叉的位置，该货币对将在50和100SMA上方交易，使其有机会从熊市逆转为牛市。短期内，欧元兑美元处于下行压力之下，因为RSI指标尚未达到超卖状态，这为进一步南下提供了空间。
阻力：1.1945, 1.2349
支撑：1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290
英镑兑美元（GBPUSD；4小时图）
随着美国国债收益率今日交易走低，导致美元走软，英镑较为乐观。自3月初触及1.3779低点以来，英镑一直在设置更高的低点。在四小时图中，该货币对已经反弹回上升趋势，在1.3887（斐波那契回调23.6%）。随着MACD线逐渐收窄，多头试图卷土重来，尽管该线目前在50SMA下方交易；与此同时，RSI指数仍保持中立，这给英镑进一步发展提供了空间。
阻力：1.3887, 1.3954, 1.4008
支撑：1.3779
黄金（XAUUSD；日线图）
黄金继续在1746.91点的关键阻力位之间上下波动。从更大的角度来看，黄金在50简单移动均线以下交易时，仍被困在下行通道。但近期来看，黄金的走向很可能决定了阻力位是否会被突破。黄金在该区域徘徊了一段时间，因此预计将看到突破，因为看涨的势头在这一点上非常强劲。与此同时，MACD指标也为多头提供了支撑，而RSI指标仍保持中性，给黄金一个向前推进的机会。
阻力：1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24
支撑：1676.89
以行业低点差和闪电般的执行速度交易外汇、指数、贵金属等。
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