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17 June 2021,03:59
市场前瞻
17 June 2021, 03:59
由于美联储比市场预期的态度更加强硬，美国股市下跌。尽管人们普遍预计将启动缩减利率的谈判，但圆点图显示的2023年底的两次加息令投资者感到意外。纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌0.34%和0.77%。除消费者自由支配股之外，标准普尔500指数所有板块均收于红色。10年期美国国债收益率飙升7.5个基点，至1.57%。
美联储保持利率不变，以下是彭博社从FOMC声明和杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席新闻发布会上获得的主要收获：
欧元是周三兑美元表现第二差的货币，第一差的是瑞士法郎，分别暴跌0.97%和1.11%。美联储已经从极度温和态度转向略微激进态度，并最终在即将举行的会议上启动人们期待已久的缩减谈判。鉴于欧洲央行计划在2021年下半年加大货币和财政支出，这正式标志着美联储和欧洲央行之间的分歧。欧元在2H20的前景并不乐观。
由于美元走强，英镑价格也下跌了0.6%。今天的暴跌更有可能是兑英镑的暂时冲击，而不是像欧元那样长期的看跌趋势。投机者仍在考虑从英国重新开放的延迟中做些什么。然而，鉴于英国成功的疫苗接种运动，我们认为这种延迟不会延长到夏天。一旦对delta变体担忧的消失，英国经济将全速运转。乐观和鹰派的英国央行将继续支撑英镑，并可能先于美联储采取行动放松QE。
英镑兑美元（GBPUSD；日线图）
英镑最终从下跌中退出了盘整阶段。在1.42至1.408的狭窄区间内被困了一个多月后，熊市将在南方寻求收益。FOMC声明发布后，价格迅速向上升趋势线暴跌，在撰写本文时，价格在1.402左右找到支撑。进一步下跌，立即的水平阻力位将是1.4，随后是5月的低点1.38和1.367。
阻力：1.42, 1.437, 1.464
支撑：1.4, 1.382, 1.369
黄金（XAUUSD；日线图）
黄金在突破两个月上升趋势线和DMA20动态支撑后继续向南走。黄金跌破1850美元的61.8%斐波那契水平，此前该水平为熊市的进攻辩护。收盘低于这一水平可能为卖家打开大门，利用巨大的下行空间，在FOMC会议后缺乏通胀对冲需求的情况下，我们可能会看到2月份金价的大幅下跌。不利的一面是，1815美元将是下一个值得关注的关键点位。
阻力：1890, 1920, 1960
支撑：1815, 1780, 1743
美元兑加元（USDCAD；日线图）
在过去两个月价格极度低迷后，美元兑加元正经历U形复苏。然而，它还没有完全脱离困境，因为一条大的下行趋势线仍然悬挂在当前价格水平之上，我们需要看到趋势线的稳固突破，以确认美元兑加元的看涨反转。在短期内，该货币对可能会挑战1.23的关口，如果未能突破这一关口，可能会让空头重新掌权，因为油价持续走高总是会提振加元。
阻力：1.23, 1.25, 1.264
支撑：1.2, 1.1925, 1.18
以行业低点差和闪电般的执行速度交易外汇、指数、贵金属等。
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