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24 March 2021,03:14
市场前瞻
24 March 2021, 03:14
尽管债券收益率有所下降，但美国股市仍遭受重创。三大指数都在下跌。标准普尔500指数暴跌0.64%，工业和材料类股领跌。
以下是彭博社从珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）和杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的《众议院关爱法案》证词中得出的关键结论：
周二美元走强，美元指数上涨0.64%。这轮反弹可能是由外部力量推动的，而不是美元本身。新西兰政府出人意料的宣布了一系列措施来应对房价上涨。由于新推出的税法降低了住房投机的利润，该法案将严重阻碍食利阶层的发展。具体来说，与之前的5年相比，持有时间少于10年的任何财产都将被征税。更大的影响可能是，向新西兰这样具有新冠肺炎抵抗能力或经济复苏的国家已经开始着手扭转过于宽松的货币政策。这种同步的预期反过来拖累了澳元和英镑等交叉货币，类似的步骤也随之而来。
由于投资者仍在消化土耳其的头条新闻，欧元兑美元暴跌0.2%。此外，德国和荷兰延长封锁进一步拖累了欧元。德国总理安格尔·默克尔（Angel Merkel）支出，德国的感染人数几乎没有下降的迹象，“由于英国变异的病毒，病例数呈指数级上升，英国新变异的冠状病毒意味着我们实际上处于一场新的疫情中。封锁将延长至复活节。”
周二，欧洲再度实施封锁，削弱了油价，WTI原油和布伦特原油期货分别暴跌6.17%和6.59%。投资者担心随着欧元区内病毒感染的复苏，疲软的欧盟疫苗接种活动将进一步落后，从而减缓石油需求的复苏。
欧元兑美元（EURUSD；日线图）
欧元兑美元看起来将以一个坚实的熊市收市。在昨日的交易中，价格非常接近于1.1954以上，但今日美元的强势恢复扼杀了多头的希望。更重要的是，随着价格突破1.19的领口，双顶图案开始显现出来。正如我们在前面的分析中指出的，该货币对将退出当前的整合阶段，熊市将夺回主导地位。鉴于从上升趋势中突破，看到持续的抛售倾向并不奇怪。不利的一面是，最近的支撑位在1.1778左右，随后是长期的1.163。我们仍可以从MACD中看到熊市的复苏。
阻力：1.19, 1.195, 1.2215
支撑：1.1778, 1.163
纽元兑美元（NZDUSD；日线图）
新西兰元发生了期待已久的突破，被困在0.7117和0.725之间的紧密区间内。新西兰政府将出台一系列新政策抗击房价上涨的消息传出后，房价无情的暴跌了2.14%。它正跌入0.7的50%斐波那契点，这也是一个非常重要的心理支撑。上一次当这个关口受到争议时，我们目睹了一次强烈的反弹，因此这一次有理由采取类似的行动。然而，如果价格未能从0.7拉远，那么我们怀疑熊市会将价格降至0.69。
阻力：0.7117, 0.725, 0.7465
支撑：0.7, 0.69, 0.6768
黄金（XAUUSD；日线图）
黄金仍执着于下降趋势线，以及布林带的中线。价格已经回落到一个角落，等待国债市场的信号。也就是说，我们仍要对贵金属持乐观态度，因为刺激计划已经成为过去，焦点已回到美联储的温和观点，即将举行的美国国债拍卖应该会支撑黄金。我们正从频繁触及的1727美元软支撑上看到反弹，任何决定性的上涨都可能鼓励多头涌入。在这一点上，投资者应该谨慎地等待双方的明显突破。
阻力：1765, 1839, 1872
支撑：1727, 1691, 1680
以行业低点差和闪电般的执行速度交易外汇、指数、贵金属等。
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